Joachim Marnitz is a betting professional and betting strategy expert. He studied sociology for a diploma. The focus was on empirical social research and thus on statistics. And that is exactly the basis for professional sports betting for him. You can’t compare this to the beer bet on the weekend.
The betting pro analyzes numerous data sets, the odds movements for both teams in the past, and the special conditions of the game. For example, whether certain players are blocked or injured. The decisive factor is the ambition to see the matter as a mathematical challenge. It’s like successful poker players. Luck and bad luck only play an important role in the meantime. Ability decides in the long run.
As a professional betting strategist, he spends a lot of time developing models which he works on all year round. He also concerns himself with obtaining data as efficiently as possible and analyzing daily bets and, if necessary, placing them.
Basis of Betting Decisions
Simply put, on a number of variables that are particularly relevant and the betting odds. The art of betting is to put the two in a reasonable relationship. In other words, you need to be able to turn your variables into probabilities and be closer to the truth with this assessment than the market is.
Nobody will reveal all of their secrets, but in football the frequency and quality of goal chances are of importance and their execution. An example of almost meaningless statistics in football is possession of the ball. Interestingly enough, such insignificant statistics can also be valuable when betting: namely, if they are overrated by the public, as this drives prices in a certain direction.
Professional Bettors and Bookmakers
Professionals bet with bookmakers who do not block or limit individual players. These are depressingly few, in football, they are primarily SBO, IBC, Pinnacle, and Singbet. In Indonesia, http://126.96.36.199/ is the by far the largest and the most trusted football gaming site. There are also betting exchanges such as Matchbook or Betdaq, and in Asia, there is also Foobet. For professionals, betting agents like Samvo Betbroker are also essential in order to be able to place really high sums in one go.
Typical Beginner Mistakes
Beginners bet on winners, professionals bet on (too high) prices. Beginners tend to make the mistake of viewing bets as a yes / no matter, rather than seeing betting odds as what they are: probabilities. Betting is about estimating these probabilities more accurately than the market, but few are aware of that. Another typical beginner’s mistake: betting too much of the betting capital per bet. Beginners mostly greatly underestimate the possible random fluctuations. Personally, I would not recommend anyone to bet more than two percent per bet. For this reason, it is ideal to take part in the betting expert betting competition: You risk no money, but you can still win some, and most importantly: You can test your skills under real conditions. Because you always learn the most in practice.
Advice for Beginners
Bring a lot of patience and test every idea in peace on paper or only with very small stakes. If you don’t know a mathematical advantage on your side, you shouldn’t bet. The best recommendation is: delve into betting theory because that’s the key to successful sports betting. Having a clue about the sport in question is far less important than you think.